Wednesday 27 June 2018 - 14:00-15:30 room: Germany - interpretation: EN/FR

Several researchers develop mid-term or long-term employment forecasts addressing either the digital transition, or the green transition, or the demographic transition, but quite often separately. The purpose of the panel is to confront their views. Concerning digitalisation, there is a wide discrepancy between the more and less pessimistic forecasts for Europe. How to explain that? Conversely, concerning the greening of the economy (climate policies, sustainable growth), there is a general agreement on the job creation potential, which is however hardly concretised. Why? Demographic changes (ageing, migrations) do not relate directly to job creation or destruction, but to labour market functioning. How do they interact with the digital and green issues?

Beyond forecasting exercises, the issue of foresight scenarios will be raised. While forecasting is about modelling, foresight scenarios have to combine various configurations of actors’ strategies and power relations.

  • Florian Blank, WSI of the Hans Böckler Foundation - PPP
  • Alex Bowen, London School of Economics - PPP
  • Ulrich Zierahn, ZEW Mannheim - PPP

Moderator: Gérard Valenduc, European Trade Union Institute

Related publications:

Toeing the line. Working conditions in digital environments, in ETUI HesaMag #16

Technological revolutions and societal transitions, in ETUI Foresight Brief #4

Work in the digital economy: sorting the old from the new

Ulrich Zierahn: Digitalization and the Future of Work: Macroeconomic consequences for tomorrow‘s employment, unemployment and wages

Dr Alex Bowen Special Adviser, Jobs and the green transition

Florian Blank: Demographic transitions: the role of the labour market 

Further readings:

Digitalisation in unlikely to destroy large numbers of jobs, but may rise inequality